It is evident that Donald Trump has rewritten the rules of political campaigning, leaving the so- called experts, analysts, journalists and even the GOP itself puzzled by the power and effectiveness of his approach.
Surprisingly, the candidates tie in negative sentiment across Hispanics at 38 percent, discounting the fact that Latinos default as Democrats or are completely turned off by Trump’s off-color comments. After all, over 50 percent of Latinos identify as political independents.
– Lili Gil Valletta
Whether you agree with him or not, his rise and political success is undeniable. He has activated a sentiment in people that appeals to the raw emotion of Washington frustration. On the other hand, he has also set a tone in which public labeling, divisive rhetoric and racially charged comments are “OK” in the public eye, and has unraveled a whole new way of freedom of speech in America.
But even with all this, after insulting women, attacking public figures, mistreating journalists, judging the judge and calling Mexicans criminals and rapists, his appeal is on the rise even among Hispanics.
Even I must admit that my original assessment of Trump was wrong with my Op-Ed for Fox News Latino back in August of 2015 when I wrote about Trump’s poor debate performance and how his collapse could present an opportunity for the GOP to engage Latinos. Fast-forward to now and we see a Trump candidacy that is strong and rising, even under the emerging hashtag #LatinosForTrump.
Latino advocacy groups and some celebrities have launched powerful videos, protests and campaigns against Trump. Recognized conservative voices like Marco Rubio, Susana Martinez, the Bush family, and even Pope Francis himself have made their discontent clear with the candidate, but could it be possible he is actually gaining support among Hispanics?
Numerous articles and Op-Eds have discounted his so-called “rise” among Latinos by pointing out the flawed nature of polls. Back in February, after claiming a win with 46 percent of the Hispanic vote in Nevada, critics quickly challenged the full sample size of voters captured to disregard the number. Most recently, Latino Decisions published an article called “Why Polls On Latinos Get It Wrong,” confirming that current ways of polling are under-representing Latinos’ voice.
Clearly, conventional political research is in question, but what if big data analysis reveals Trump’s rise is real, based on a sample size of over 1 million Hispanics?
Based on big data analysis over the last 30 days as of June 1st, Trump reports 37 percent of Hispanic positive sentiment versus 41 percent for Clinton. Surprisingly, the candidates tie in negative sentiment across Hispanics at 38 percent, discounting the fact that Latinos default as Democrats or are completely turned off by Trump’s off-color comments. After all, over 50 percent of Latinos identify as political independents.
Similar analysis has been done leading up to the primaries, which have demonstrated a direct correlation between positive sentiment and actual voting results.
I have been writing since February about this new way to mine political intelligence, which leverages the power of big data analysis via artificial intelligence, keyword Boolean, search analysis, keyword spiders, site scraping, text analytics and machine learning/tagging under the proprietary methodology of CulturIntel™. It is mining, not social listening; it is big data of millions, not just a few thousands, surveyed. If this methodology is good enough for the Harvard Medical School to conduct healthcare research and for major corporations to mine business intelligence, why not use it for political strategy?
Everyone may have an opinion but real strategic power comes from data. Clearly, while many may criticize Trump’s methodology, many are agreeing with his ideology; and, this time, it’s the data speaking, not me.