Could Republican presumptive presidential nominee Donald Trump actually win the November election? The Hillary Clinton Democrats are still in denial about this very real possibility. Both Clinton and the Democratic party have declared her their informal presumptive nominee. But now, the latest poll numbers have smacked her and the party in the face.
Trump beats Clinton in a one-on-one race, according to a new Rasmussen Reports poll released Thursday.
In spite of the country’s anger against the establishment, which manifests itself in Trump’s and Bernie Sanders’ popularity, Clinton has plugged on, dragging the establishment in her wake. Cleary, she represents a party that refuses to change, and the consequence of that could easily mean a Trump presidency.
The poll shows Trump with a 5 percentage points win over Clinton, 42 to 37 percent, which is over the margin of error. The undecided only account for 7 percent of the votes, while 13 percent of the respondents would choose an entirely different candidate.
This should be quite disconcerting to the Democrats. Instead of accepting that Clinton is down in the polls, because she represents the establishment, they attack Bernie Sanders. Until now, they have treated him like a nuisance fly, but with Clinton losing to Trump in the polls, they blame Sanders for her faltering. In reality, Clinton is doing poorly in the polls for reasons specific to her.
Now that Trump has shrugged off all his Republican opponents and is focusing in on Clinton, her poll numbers have dipped. The Rasmussen poll that came out in the beginning of May showed that Trump led Clinton by 2 points, which was in the margin of error. Now, his lead has jumped to 5 points, which is more significant.
So, who likes Trump? In the latest poll, he has 76 percent of the Republicans, and Clinton attracts 72 percent of the Democrats. But there is an interesting cross-over in the poll. It shows 13 percent of Democrats prefer Trump, while 9 percent of Republicans like Clinton.
Independent voters are where the real action is. Although, Trump leads Clinton by 13 points, 41 to 28 percent, close to one-third of voters who are not associated with either Republicans or Democrats plan to choose an entirely different candidate or remain undecided.
Men prefer Trump over Clinton by 22 points, but Clinton only leads Trump by 11 points with women. Not surprisingly, Clinton leads Trump with a large number of black voters, but Trump beats her when it comes to white voters. People under 40 prefer Clinton, and Trump claims the older voters. Again, nearly one-third of young voters prefers an entirely different candidate or remains undecided.
Why the Democrats believe that Clinton will win is perplexing. Trump has barely begun to attack her, and he is in the midst of remaking himself into a candidate more palatable to the general public. Trump has tapped into his voters’ anger and frustration. Clinton is still playing the establishment’s old song, and things will likely only get worse for her.
The Rasmussen survey was conducted May 17–18 among 1,000 likely voters and has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.