Over the past twelve days people have started paying attention as both political parties prepared for, and then staged their conventions. Each convention presents their party’s presidential candidate in the best possible light and, and according the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, people obviously like what they’ve seen of the straight talking Donald Trump.
Only July 14th Trump, after a withering barrage of negative publicity from Hillary’s friends in the mainstream media and $30 million dollars in negative advertising that was spent against him, Trump had bottomed out with 31.5% support according to the poll.
Hillary was cruising along with 46.5% support, riding the wave of the fawning mainstream media and with no negative campaign ads against her coming from the Trump camp.
Then the conventions began. First the Republicans convened from July 18th to July 21st. By the time they left Cleveland Trump’s support had jumped to 37.3% but, just as importantly Hillary’s support had begun tanking, down to 41.3%. Her once formidable 15–point lead was down to 4 points.
With shouts of “Lock her up” resonating from the convention floor the Republicans had succeeded in exposing Hillary’s corrupt ways to the American people.
Then the Democrats began their convention this past Monday. It was their turn to present Hillary Clinton in the best possible light. After the first two nights their convention is turning into an epic fail as the same chant of “Lock her up” was heard coming from their faithful, as well.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on Tuesday night shows Trump now holding a 1.7% lead over Clinton.
That completed an astonishing 16.7-point swing in the past 12 days.
The American people are telling the Democratic Party that there’s only so much lipstick you can put on this pig.
And, Nate Silver, who is widely recognized for his fivethirtyeight.com election handicapping accuracy, has noted the accuracy of this poll and now says, “our now-cast — which is more aggressive than the polls-only forecast and estimates what would happen in a hypothetical election held today — has Trump as a 55 percent favorite.”
All of this can change if Hillary delivers a real stem-winder tonight and she manages to leave her convention with even a minor bounce. But very few seasoned observers believe she is capable of that.