In the latest polling data from Optimus, a Republican polling firm, released today, businessman and 2016 Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump leads Texas Senator Ted Cruz by four percentage points in the contest for the Wisconsin Republican primary. Even more surprising is that in the poll, Ohio Governor John Kasich is in second place, ahead of Cruz.
Optimus surveyed 6,182 likely Wisconsin GOP voters between March 22-24, 2016, and the poll has a margin of error of 1.14%. This sampling is the largest conducted so far in Wisconsin, and has the smallest margin of error to date in the 2016 Republican primary campaign.
The survey shows that Trump is in the lead with 29.4%, followed in second place by Kasich with 26.8%, and Cruz rounds out the field with 25%. 18.7% of all voters still remain undecided, which means that these poll numbers could drastically change before election day next Tuesday.
The poll was taken prior to Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker‘s announcement that he is choosing to endorse Ted Cruz in the primary. What effect, if any, that Walker’s endorsement of Cruz will have on these numbers remains to be seen. The poll shows that it is Kasich who is surging statewide, with his support growing with each and every campaign appearance he makes.
Which way will the undecided voters swing? Right now, this is a three man race, and, at least for now, Trump is on top.
However, Kasich’s momentum continues to push him farther up in the polls, and he is demonstrating that he has a plausible chance to take home the victory in Wisconsin. With one week to go before next Tuesday’s Republican primary election, the race still remains a dead heat between all three candidates; Cruz, Kasich, and Trump.