Because one of the pillars of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign has been his stance on illegal immigration and the controversial comments that have come with it, the widely held assumption has been that Trump — now the presumptive Republican nominee — would do very poorly among Hispanic voters.
Fox News contributor and XL Alliance co-founder Lili Gil Valletta is one of those pundits who believed Hispanics would come out in large numbers against Trump. But she now says a closer look at big data analysis reveals the prevailing wisdom may have been wrong.
After analyzing the numbers, Valletta reveals that, “Surprisingly, the candidates tie in negative sentiment across Hispanics at 38 percent, discounting the fact that Latinos default as Democrats or are completely turned off by Trump’s off-color comments. After all, over 50 percent of Latinos identify as political independents.”
Expanding on the results, she writes, “Based on big data analysis over the last 30 days as of June 1, Trump reports 37 percent of Hispanic positive sentiment versus 41 percent for Clinton. Similar analysis has been done leading up to the primaries, which have demonstrated a direct correlation between positive sentiment and actual voting results.”
So are these big data methods — with a sample size of more than 1 million Hispanics — as reliable as the typical political survey? Valletta thinks so.
“I have been writing since February about this new way to mine political intelligence,” Valletta said. “It is mining, not social listening; it is big data of millions, not just a few thousands, surveyed. If this methodology is good enough for the Harvard Medical School to conduct healthcare research and for major corporations to mine business intelligence, why not use it for political strategy?”
Ultimately, Valletta believes Trump’s performance among Hispanics may be just the latest aspect of his campaign that proves every so-called expert wrong.
“Everyone may have an opinion but real strategic power comes from data,” Valletta said. “Clearly, while many may criticize Trump’s methodology, many are agreeing with his ideology; and, this time, it’s the data speaking, not me.”
h/t: Fox News Latino