Every four years we have both a leap year and a presidential election. While we are certain the leap year will happen, we are not always so certain who will win a presidential election. One professor has correctly predicted it for the last three decades is now weighing in on who he thinks will win the 2016 election.
Allen Lichtman, distinguished professor at American University, said based on his current analysis, Donald Trump is headed for the victory.
Lichtman bases his prediction on his 13 keys for the White House, which he has studied in every election since 1860. These are True/False questions where if the answer is false then the incumbent party is slated to lose. Get six or more of these and it signifies a win from the challenging party.
The Democrats have a lot going against them this election cycle with these keys. First of all, there is the party mandate – how well they did in the midterm elections, and the Democrats essentially got crushed. Key number three is the fact the sitting president is not running, and key number seven was that there wasn’t a major policy change, such as the Affordable Care Act, during Obama’s second term.
For the eleventh key, there was no major foreign policy success that the incumbent party could hang their hats on.
The charisma factor looms large in this race as well, and Hillary Clinton does not inspire much enthusiasm in that category. Indeed, one reporter a couple months ago was going to infiltrate one of Hillary’s political events and found out he was the only one who attended when he got there.
Finally, another factor that could play a role in a potential victory for Donald Trump would be the third-party factor. Gary Johnson is polling at 12% and Lichtman’s rule is to cut that in half. If the third-party candidate gets more than 5% of the vote, then it is a minus for the incumbent party.
This is definitely good news for Donald Trump, for a number of reasons.
Lichtman is not a biased political expert. His model does not use the current polls in any way, shape, or form. He has indicated this prediction is not an endorsement either.
Lichtman just simply said what we have been feeling all along. The signs are pointing to a Donald Trump victory.
What do you think about this professor’s prediction model which has been correct for every race since 1984 and how he is now predicting Donald Trump will win? Please share the story on Facebook and tell us because OUR voice is YOUR voice!