Professor Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984, thinks Donald Trump will win in November.
Lichtman, a distinguished professor of history at American University, created his “13 Keys to the White House” more than 30 years ago.
In an interview with The Washington Post, he explained how he’s using these keys, which he calls a “historically based prediction system,” to forecast a Trump victory.
According to Lichtman, the 13 keys are:
1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Lichtman explained that if the party holding the White House, in this case the Democrats, answers six or more of those statements as “false,” they will lose.
He said that Democrats are already in trouble with at least five keys: “Key 1 is the party mandate — how well they did in the midterms. They got crushed. Key number 3 is, the sitting president is not running. Key number 7, no major policy change in Obama’s second term like the Affordable Care Act. Key number 11, no major smashing foreign policy success. And Key number 12, Hillary Clinton is not a Franklin Roosevelt.”
He added that the presence of Gary Johnson, who’s is at approximately 12 to 14 percent in his highest polling, adds a sixth and final key against the Democrats.
“So very, very narrowly, the keys point to a Trump victory,” Lichtman said.
Trump is headed for a win, says professor who has predicted 30 years of presidential outcomes correctlyhttps://t.co/yAvvnU2pGf
— Washington Post (@washingtonpost) September 23, 2016
Let us know what you think in the comments.