Polls conducted five months before an election will rarely give definitive answers about the outcome at the ballot box. But a new poll from Axiom Strategies and Remington Research is catching the eye of some political analysts — and certainly must be cause for enthusiasm within Donald Trump’s campaign.
The pollsters looked at seven of the so-called “swing” states in this year’s election. Within each of those states, they surveyed voters in one “bellwether” county — a county whose presidential preferences are almost always in line with the rest of the state. In other words, a candidate who wins that specific county will very likely also win that particular state on election day.
The good news for Trump is that based on Axiom’s latest poll, the presumptive Republican nominee is holding leads in five of those seven counties. Here’s a look at each of the counties and the current margin.
Pennsylvania (Luzerne County) — Trump +17 percent: Luzerne County has voted for the Democratic nominee for president in each of the last four elections. Luzerne has been an indicator for which candidate would win the statewide vote consistently since 2000. The county has seen its unemployment level increase to 6.4 percent as of March, and the labor force in that region has a more favorable view of Trump than Clinton.
Nevada (Washoe County) — Trump +12 percent: Voters here are split when it comes to rating Trump as “favorable” or “unfavorable.” However, 25 percent more voters view Clinton as “unfavorable” as opposed to “favorable.”
Ohio (Sandusky County) — Trump +5 percent: Clinton again polls much higher in the “unfavorable” ratings than Trump. Also of note, voters who were asked which candidate’s scandals they viewed as more troubling, Clinton earned 50 percent of the vote. Trump was at 26 percent.
North Carolina (Watauga County) — Trump +4 percent: Right now, Trump is winning largely because he has a higher percentage of support from Republicans (78 percent) than Clinton does among Democrats (71 percent).
Florida (Hillsborough County) — Trump +2 percent: Again, neither candidate has bright and shiny favorability numbers in Florida, but Trump has a seven-point lead among non-partisan voters (38 percent to 31 percent).
Clinton is leading in two of the seven key swing state counties: Virginia’s Loudon County (+8 percent) and Colorado’s Jefferson County (+4 percent).
The poll was conducted June 3-6, or about the time the controversial comments by Trump regarding Judge Gonzalo Curiel were dominating the news, so it’s not known what, if any, impact those comments have on the poll results.
While the Axiom/Remington poll looks like good news at the moment for Trump, veteran election analyst Ed Morrissey says there are other numbers within three of these states that are troublesome for Trump.
Morrissey points out the numbers Trump is currently polling in Hillsboro, Watauga and Sandusky counties are between 5-12 percent lower than the vote totals Mitt Romney generated in 2012.
The poll was also conducted prior to Tuesday’s primaries, which Clinton dominated and gave her the delegates needed to clinch the Democratic nomination. Morrissey also believes Democrat support for Clinton will likely increase once she officially becomes the nominee after her party’s convention and supporters of Bernie Sanders become supporters of Clinton.
h/t: Hot Air