This year in politics has been a crazy, unpredictable ride, thanks in large part to Donald Trump, but that isn’t stopping political scientists from using data to try to predict the outcome of this year’s election.
One man, Helmut North, has attempted to do just that using a statistical model that had been correct for all but one election in the last 104 years.
The results — even for the most passionate Donald Trump supporter — are hard to believe. The perpetually correct model not only has Donald Trump winning the presidency, but the odds of him winning are huge.
The model doesn’t just predict a win, or even a landslide. It predicts, by all measures, a Donald Trump blowout.
Donald Trump has got a lot to celebrate about this week. As it looks more and more likely that he will win the GOP nomination, people are now looking ahead to his shot at the presidency, and his chances are good. Really good.
A political science professor who claims his statistical model has correctly predicted the results of every election except for one in the last 104 years has forecast that the odds of Donald Trump becoming America’s next president currently range from 97 percent to 99 percent.
The professor is Helmut Norpoth of Stony Brook University, reports The Statesman, the campus newspaper at the public bastion on New York’s Long Island.
Specifically, Norpoth predicts that Trump has a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton and a 99 percent chance of beating Bernie Sanders.
In fact, when it comes to the popular vote, Norpoth predicts it won’t even be close.
“When I started out with this kind of display a few months ago, I thought it was sort of a joke,” the professor told the alumni audience, according to the student newspaper. “Well, I’ll tell you right now, it ain’t a joke anymore.”
“Trump beats Hillary 54.7 percent to 45.3 percent” in terms of popular vote, North prophesied.
Looks like his nay-sayers might have to jump aboard the Trump Train soon. It’s moving fast, and its final stop may very well be the Oval Office.