The NYT reported some good news for Trump

The New York Times reported: Senator Ted Cruz’s victory in Wisconsin, Donald J. Trump’s series of wins in past primaries has left him with a sizable lead in the race for the Republican nomination.

If Mr. Trump maintains his current level of support in the remaining races, he could win a delegate majority before the convention, but it will be close.

Senator Ted Cruz’s victory in Wisconsin, Donald J. Trump’s series of wins in past primaries has left him with a sizable lead in the race for the Republican nomination.

If Mr. Trump maintains his current level of support in the remaining races, he could win a delegate majority before the convention, but it will be close.

No other candidate has a realistic chance of capturing the delegates required to win the nomination outright. Even if Ted Cruz were to win all of the remaining delegates, it is a near impossibility for him to reach the 1,237-delegate threshold.

Though Mr. Trump is in a strong position, his path to winning enough delegates to secure the Republican nomination is not assured. Breaching the 1,237-delegate threshold requires him to maintain the same level of voter support in the contests ahead. If the dynamics of the race shift against him, he will fall short. Mr. Cruz and Gov. John Kasich of Ohio will try to earn enough delegates between them to deny Mr. Trump a majority and force the convention to undertake a second ballot. At that point, anything can happen.

In addition, there are several caveats that add uncertainty to these numbers. In a few states, there are delegates still to be allocated — for example, there is Missouri, where 12 delegates have yet to be apportioned to the statewide winner. (In the uncertified results, Mr. Trump currently leads Mr. Cruz by less than 0.2 percent of the vote.) Even delegates that have already been allocated can be reassigned.

The delegate count as reported by The A.P. lags the total vote somewhat. In the chart below, we have included delegate estimates from The Green Papers, which include the unallocated delegates from states that have already voted.

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