Records, as they say, are made to be broken. And here’s one that a lot of optimistic riders on the Trump train will no doubt hope is broken in less than six months and doesn’t hold through the November presidential election.
Short of a sudden surge in gas prices and a big drop in President Obama’s approval ratings, America could make history on election day…again. One of the world’s better-known firms for helping investors and institutions manage risk across global financial markets says Hillary Clinton is headed to the White House.
Moody’s Analytics’ latest election outcome based on its model — which is touted as having been accurate in predicting the outcome of every presidential election since 1980 — “predicts Clinton will take 332 electoral votes compared to Donald Trump’s 206 — 270 are needed to win the presidency,” according to an article in The Daily Caller.
The Hill notes that the Moody’s predictive model has pointed toward “a Democratic victory in 2016 since its first forecast was released in July 2015.” That was only weeks after the entry of the billionaire businessman into a race that he would eventually come to dominate on the GOP side of the political spectrum.
Of course, as disclaimers will advise you in the investment business, past performance is no guarantee of future results. And another model that had correctly predicted the presidential winner in every contest going back to 1980 was famously wrong — in fact, spectacularly wrong — in saying that Mitt Romney would beat Barack Obama in 2012.
Two academics from the University of Colorado — who boasted of the consistent superiority of their forecasting — ran the numbers through their statistical model and found Romney would be the clear winner in November four years ago. These two guys — riding their track record of success — confidently predicted that problems with the economy essentially guarantee a Romney victory.
As The Los Angeles Times reported in August of 2012, “Using a state-by-state analysis of unemployment and per-capita income, academics Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry of the University of Colorado project that Romney will win 52.9% of the popular vote and 320 electoral votes.”
As we all know that didn’t happen, and the model’s record of success came to an end.
And with the presidential race in 2016 being marked by so many strange, unorthodox and unpredictable aspects and events, it would appear that this might be the year the Moody’s model could find itself challenged, to say the least.
In fact, as The Hill observes, the model seems to run counter to what a number of national polls have been showing of late, with Donald Trump surging to within a few points of Hillary Clinton, if not overtaking her outright.
CNN reports that a pair of new polls released over the weekend show a real horse race in the making, as Trump seems to be finding a growing sense of acceptance among Republican establishment figures who used to keep their distance from The Donald.