Why Won’t Anyone But Bill Mitchell Question the Polls?

If you’ve been on Twitter this election, you’ve probably at least heard of Bill Mitchell. He’s the charismatic radio personality who frequently tweets what seem like Dungeons and Dragons damage modifiers, and according to Mitchell, his tweets are seen 14 million times on busy days.

Every time a new poll comes out, Mitchell springs to action, examining the demographics within the poll’s sample, and almost inevitably declares the poll invalid. Usually he’ll tweet something about how the poll is “D+9 in a D+2 state!” He frequently calls out “garbage” polls, suggests deep blue states may become Republican for Donald Trump, and has put his reputation on the line by predicting a victory for the Republican candidate.

Mitchell says the polls over sample demographics any Republican will have a hard time with. These include Democrats, women,  college educated, Hispanics, and other minorities. According to Mitchell, when a pollster wants Trump to perform poorly, they over sample these demographics by several percentage points (D+Y). This sounds like it could be a standard polling practice until Mitchell breaks down the voter demographics in specific states and compares the states to the demographics polled.

Whether or not this type of skewed sample can be accounted for scientifically using some sort of mathematical wizardry is moot. A man is convincing millions of people the polls are rigged by breaking them down in this fashion, and nobody is correcting him. Mitchell makes a convincing argument, and nobody even bothers challenging him.

Instead of explaining why they over sample these demographics, Clinton supporters take the high road by insulting him and calling him gay. Mitchell makes an argument based on factual demographic information. They cede the argument by belittling him as a person instead. Not an argument.

Here’s my question: How come Bill Mitchell, radio host and prolific Twitter user, is the only one talking about this? He’s having a massive impact. Mitchell has been on InfoWars, Freedomain Radio, and has an impressive audience on his own program, Your Voice Radio. This is very important, and yet none of the members of the media or polling companies who sponsor and conduct these polls will take the time to address Mitchell’s concerns.

There are two possible explanations. One suggests polling companies are purposely rigging their polls to artificially inflate Hillary Clinton’s position. Why? I don’t know. Maybe to give her supporters confidence, persuade people to vote for the winning team, or simply demoralize the Trump camp to the point where Trump voters stay home. A leaked email provided by Wikileaks adds some credence to this possible explanation, too.

wikileak

The second explanation is Mitchell is wrong and the mainstream media is right. Maybe they’ve always been doing polls this way, and Trump’s massive base of online supporters and large rally attendance won’t matter. This happened in 2008 and 2012 with former Congressman Ron Paul, who raised an unprecedented amount of money online and routinely had large rallies. People have also compared Trump to Bernie Sanders in this regard, though many believe the Democratic primary campaign was rigged.

If Trump wins, Mitchell is proven right. The polls were crooked. The media refused to even acknowledge this massive sampling error because they were in the wrong and knew it.

If Mitchell is wrong, there is no Trump landslide, and the election is not rigged, then the media was right. But the media was also so full of hubris they refused to even acknowledge very real concerns with their allegedly scientific polls. Instead of explaining their actions months ago, they lowered their trustworthiness by implying their viewers are too dumb to know or care about the discrepencies Mitchell detailed throughout the election.

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